News on March 30, according to foreign media reports, with the new coronavirus epidemic in China gradually under control, Apple's iPhone factory has basically been restarted and put into operation. But the company's most pressing question now is how many consumers will buy its current models and new phones expected to launch in the fall?
Executives at one of Apple's major contract assemblers said that Apple's quarterly orders through the end of March could be 18% lower than the previous year. He also said that although the new Apple models that support the next-generation 5G network may still be released in the autumn as scheduled, the start of production has been delayed.
The person familiar with the matter said: "No one in China is talking about the shortage of manpower or supplies anymore, and everyone is now paying attention to whether demand from the United States and Europe can keep up. The focus is now on boosting consumer demand in the United States and Europe. "
According to another person familiar with the matter, one of Apple's major screen suppliers is preparing for a similar level of production contraction. The company had expected 70 million iPhone screen shipments this year, but is now considering reducing these targets by 17% to 58 million. In addition, the company plans to lay off staff at its Vietnam plant.
Earlier this month, Apple closed all retail stores outside Greater China, but its retail stores in China resumed operations. As most parts of Europe and the United States are under blockade, global unemployment has soared, and it is uncertain when demand may recover.
As countries including Malaysia and Vietnam implement new restrictions to combat the new coronavirus epidemic, Apple may also face further supply chain issues. An executive at a Malaysian supplier said: "Since the supply chain is disrupted and the situation is changing every day, it is difficult to make any meaningful comments on supply and demand issues at this time."
In February this year, Apple's first quarter sales forecast, but did not give a new forecast. Since the beginning of this year, the company's stock price has fallen by more than 15%. Canaccel Genuity analyst Michael Walkley said: "Our basic assumption is that demand is impacted in the second quarter and the performance in the second half of the year has steadily improved, but not a 'V-shaped' recovery."
Fubon Research analysts cut Apple's iPhone shipment forecast for the first quarter of this year to 35 million units, down 17% from 41 million a year ago. The company lowered its forecast for Apple's total iPhone shipments in 2020 to 198 million units, which was lower than the previous forecast of 204 million.
At least in the United States, consumers seem unsure whether they will resume spending. Civis Analytics conducted a survey of more than 2,600 U.S. adults from March 18 to 20, and more than half of the respondents said that if the epidemic is brought under control in the coming weeks, they plan to spend on consumer electronics and outbreak Front is roughly the same.
However, if the situation worsens, the opinions of the interviewees will become more divergent. About one third of the respondents each said that when the situation returns to normal, they will reduce, flatten or increase spending on consumer electronics. This ambiguous attitude makes it difficult for Apple suppliers to judge the development trend of 2020.
An iPhone sensor maker said that the company continues to produce and ship parts for Apple devices. As of the first quarter of this year, its performance was better than last year, and sales in the second quarter may also be higher than last year.
A person familiar with sensor suppliers said last week: "About a month ago, just before the large-scale outbreak of the new coronavirus, we forecasted supply and demand for the quarter. We are still producing according to this forecast."
