Server shipments are expected to maintain growth throughout 2020

09 Apr 2020

According to a survey conducted by Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Research Center, benefiting from the continued prosperity of data center orders, coupled with the traditional brand factories to avoid supply cuts due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the server shipments continued to grow in the second quarter Because the base period of the first quarter is already high, it is estimated that shipments in the second quarter will only increase by 7-9% quarter-on-quarter, which is not as good as the double-digit performance of the same period in the past. Liu Jiahao, an analyst at Jibang Consulting, pointed out that the demand for data centers in the second quarter is still the main driving force, especially the four largest cloud players in North America. Due to the turbulence in Sino-US relations in 2019, some production lines of cloud industry players in North America have been transferred to Taiwan, China, and have been verified. The orders that were postponed last year were able to be shipped in the first quarter of this year. Observing the performance in the second quarter, although the epidemic continues to expand and poses a threat to the shipment schedule of some server supply chains, American companies often change their shipping locations to ensure normal shipments, so the second quarter is still expected to be higher Season growth. Most mainland Chinese companies have resumed factory operations. In addition to the new epidemic prevention requirements in the first quarter, new infrastructure projects in the second quarter have also been gradually launched. For example, 5G infrastructure and cloud infrastructure have also driven Huawei and Inspur ( Inspur) and Xinhua III (H3C) and other related suppliers have stepped up efforts to pull components and components to cope with the production plan for the second half of this year. From the demand side, Alibaba (Alibaba) benefited from the new retail business Hema (Fresh Hema) demand growth, and 618 shopping festival demand, the second quarter to increase the amount of inventory; ByteDance (ByteDance) continued to increase Server orders to meet the needs of new data centers in North America. Jibang Consulting estimates that the demand for emerging BAT (Bytedance, Alibaba, Tencent) will not only come from overseas business expansion this year, but also focus on the popularization and implementation of domestic infrastructure. The overall demand for servers will grow by 10% to 20% annually.

The The impact of the epidemic may be reflected in Q3 As the epidemic gradually expands globally, the server's shipment schedule and component supply are also affected. Among them, the Philippines and Malaysia are both important production centers for server non-memory components, which also lays hidden troubles in the server market in the second half of the year. According to a survey conducted by Jibang Consulting, Intel has back-end CPU capacity in Malaysia, so if Malaysia continues to lock in the country, it will threaten the server production schedule in the medium and long term. In addition, Samsung (Samsung) carries out the back-end packaging of server memory modules in Luzon Island in the Philippines. Therefore, the closure of Luzon Island may affect the shipment schedule of Samsung server memory modules. Although it is maintained at this stage, Samsung is bound to follow It is necessary to reexamine the production line configuration and add uncertainty to the currently tight server memory supply. In summary, Jibang Consulting estimates that server shipments will continue to grow throughout the year. Optimistically, the epidemic will be controlled in the second half of the year, with an annual growth rate of approximately 5%; however, if the epidemic continues to expand and affects the overall The aircraft shipment schedule, pessimistically predicts that annual growth will converge to only about 3%.

For more information or request product quotation, please contact [email protected]

server,