Under the influence of the new crown epidemic, domestic car makers were closed in February, and European and American car makers were closed one after another in March. The suspension of production by various car makers not only caused a decline in car production, but also affected car sales, which affected the demand for components. Especially for car panel products. According to industry insiders, panel manufacturers have received notices that customers have cut orders or even suspended shipments.
Due to the downturn in the automotive market and the spread of the epidemic, the automotive panel market is full of uncertainty. Qunzhi Consulting predicts that global shipments of in-vehicle display panels will decline to 147Mpcs in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. If the OEM's downtime is too long, shipments will continue to decline, and the decline will further expand.
Automobile sales decline, panel makers get cut orders
Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the automobile sales market in various regions of the world has fallen sharply. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in the Chinese market in March were 1.422 million and 1.43 million, respectively, up 399.2% and 361.4% from the previous month, down 44.5% and 43.3% year-on-year, respectively. 35.8 percentage points. From January to March, automobile production and sales completed 3.474 million units and 3.672 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 45.2% and 42.4% respectively.
In addition to the domestic market, sales in Europe and the United States are not optimistic. According to data from LMC Automotive, among the five mainstream markets in Western Europe, sales in Germany fell by 38% in March, 44% in the UK, 72% in France, 85% in Italy, and 69% in Spain. The US sales in March also fell by 38.6% to 983,174. Since the current recovery prospects of the automotive industry are still uncertain, LMC expects that vehicle sales in Western Europe will decline further in the coming months.
Omdia Chief Analyst Wu Youxiang said that in March there were more than 100 automobile manufacturing plants that announced suspension of production due to many factors such as closed management, parts shortage, and lack of work. With the increase in the resumption rate of the supply chain, panel supply has returned to normal in March, but downstream orders were frozen in March. According to small and medium-sized panel manufacturers, due to the cessation of production at many car manufacturers, orders for vehicle panel freezes were seen in late March, and customers were notified that orders were reduced or delayed in early April, and some orders even returned to zero.
The chairman of AU Optronics pointed out that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has a great impact on the automotive market. In February, mainland car sales were only 1/10 of the past, and the automotive industry chain is long, the supply chain management involved is complicated, and the time required to resume work is also relatively long. This year, the mainland car makers were closed, and then in March, European car makers were also closed. The halt of production by car makers around the country also affected the demand for components, especially car panel products.
Cao Qian, a senior analyst at Qunzhi Consulting, also told reporters, "Due to the impact of the epidemic, the global vehicle market has been hit hard. In February, sales in the Chinese region were cut. Although there were signs of recovery in China in March, the European and American regions also suffered from The epidemic caused the demand of the vehicle market to be suppressed. Qunzhi Consulting predicted that the global vehicle sales in the first quarter will be about 16.9Mpcs, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. Under this background, the global vehicle panels in the first quarter have also been greatly affected accordingly. "
"On the demand side, the first quarter was mainly due to a sharp decline in the demand for automotive panels in the Chinese market. Since mid-March, Tier1 in Europe and the United States and car manufacturers have suspended production due to the epidemic situation, which has severely damped the demand for the automotive market in the European and American markets." Cao Qian further stated that on the supply side, Panel factories, especially mainland panel factories, were less affected. The production capacity of the main panel module segment was affected to a certain extent. The current production and supply have become normal, but due to the weak overall demand, the shipment of each panel factory has not reached the predetermined Target, the inventory level is high.
Global car panel shipments are expected to fall by 7% this year
At present, the epidemic situation of New Crown continues to deteriorate in Europe, North America, and India, and many car manufacturers have stopped production or switched to epidemic prevention equipment. CINNO Research pointed out that in view of the current situation of the epidemic in Europe, the United States and India, the auto market is unlikely to recover from April to May. Europe, the United States and India, which account for 50% of the global auto market, will experience a sharp decline in sales in the second quarter Global auto sales are expected to decline by about 30% in the second quarter, and the impact on the automotive display panel market will gradually ferment.
Cao Qian told reporters, "At present, the domestic epidemic has been basically controlled, and the consumer end of the vehicle will begin to pick up in the second quarter. However, due to the outbreak of foreign countries, some parts factories have been shut down. This will affect the production of some domestic models. Panel demand will also be suppressed; in addition, the shutdown of epidemic factories abroad, especially in Europe and the United States, has led to a sharp drop in demand for automotive display panels. Overall, the demand for automotive display panels in the second quarter or even the second half of the year will remain weak. "
Due to the spread of the epidemic, the automotive panel market is full of uncertainty. Qunzhi Consulting predicts that global shipments of in-vehicle display panels will decline to 147Mpcs in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. In terms of car panel prices, Cao Qian pointed out that unlike the consumer display market, the price of car display panels is basically an annual bargain, so the price is relatively stable. Although this year's market situation is different (the demand has dropped sharply, the production capacity of panel factories is becoming more surplus), but the market price of automotive display panels has not changed greatly.
Despite the decline in vehicle sales, panel companies are still optimistic about the market demand for automotive panels in the second half of the year. A relevant person from TCL Huaxing told reporters, "Despite the suspension of production in many European and American car manufacturers, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continues to improve. The production of domestic car manufacturers has not been affected. With stable production capacity, it will further expand the global market share; The “multi-screen development” of instrument display, head-up display, central control display and rear seat entertainment display, and car display brings new opportunities for the development of panel companies such as TCL Huaxing. With the help of many factors, domestic cars Industrial vehicle panel demand is expected to usher in an upward cycle. "
